July'09 Update preview & disappointment predictions

Been a while since my last blog post, so... figure I'd do a preview of the version update. That takes place today, so you know what that means!

Yes... everyone downloads the files, and some people go ahead and dat-mine everything so that we know exactly what is coming out before we can even log in to the game so we can start complaining about it earlier!

Not to go against tradition... here are some interesting tidbits I picked out from the dat mining threads at http://www.bluegartrls.com/forum/78601-july-20th-version-update-dat-mining-results.html and http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.html?forum=10;mid=124810988151855310;num=137;page=1 These are just my opinions with what has been dug up so far

Equipment

Ominaeshi Yukata (hq)
DEF:2 Improves goldfish-scooping ability

* Waaaaaaaaaait... goldfish-scooping? :O What's next? Takoyaki food item? :D~~

* Knowing we have clamming that... I've done once in total... I'm guessing this is another yearly festival activity

Iron Ram Hauberk
DEF:50 HP+32 Enmity+6
"Magic Def. Bonus"+5
Set: Increases all elemental resistances
Lv.68. PLD, DRK, WAR

* Ok, this is pretty much the PLD body for everyone without Valor, or used their ACP body for something else. Pretty much expected and I guess this is my new PLD piece once I get my new campaign medal

Cobra Unit Harness
DEF:42 Accuracy+11
"Store TP"+6
Enmity-8
Set: Enhances "Counter"effect
Lv.68. MNK, THF, RNG, BLU, COR, PUP, DNC

* This was a surprise... I wasn't expecting that high of a +accuracy, or +Store TP. If I had not gotten my Etoile Casque and Enkidu's Harness a couple of weeks ago, I think this would have been my main accuracy piece on Dancer. I'll still pick it up anyway just to complete my Cobra Unit Cap set

Cobra Unit Robe

Yadda yadda some stats

* No matter what, it can't compare with the "Enhances Dark Arts" effect of the Scholar's Gown... or the "Enhances Sublimation" effect of the Argute Gown

"Fairy weapons"

* These are weird weapons that have different damage ratings based on whether you are holding it on your main hand or off-hand. Apparently they are crafted, and can be augmented by completing a quest

* Augmentations have generally been a failure due to the randomness of the augments. Except for the final quest reward items(which you can choose), I don't know of anyone who actually goes out there to actively try to get augmented items

* Finally, a quick look at the stats of each weapon shows that even though the weapons are level 75, none of the ones I would use compare to any of my current weapons... it would require a really good augmentation before one would consider bothering with these

Sturm's Report
Magic Accuracy+2
Campaign: Magic Accuracy+15
Level 60 Ammo, All jobs

* My best guess is that this is a "Union" item since it has campaign properties. I think all the level 60 "Campaign" items are obtained through this new "Union" system

* Definitely an interesting piece for SCH... Magic Accuracy is always good, though I'm not sure if it would really replace the +int from my current ammo piece

Sonia's Plectrum
Waltz potency +1%
Campaign: "Waltz" potency +10%
Level 60 Ammo, All jobs

* Another union item. This would be one of the few pieces with "Waltz" potency on it, though at 1% potency increase, this means that at most, a Curing Waltz IV would gain about... 7HP -.-;

* I'm not certain that giving up the War Hoop for this is worth it. I do a lot of pulling on DNC in various situations, and I'd rather have the option of being able to pull a mob from a distance compared to getting an extra 7 HP cured.

* The unfortunate side effect of this being "all jobs" is that... it won't just be Dancers that want this, but every melee job since almost everyone goes /DNC to Campaign

Patronus Ring
Physical damage taken -2%
Campaign: Physical damage taken -10%
LV60 All Jobs

* I *think* this is a good PLD piece? -2% damage is good... though with the campaign -10% and the "all jobs" means that everyone will be wanting this again -.-

Instant Retrace

* This is amusing... I always carry a scroll of Instant Warp and Instant Reraise on me (thanks satchel), so I guess this will join those two. Still... I'm always amused by the people shouting for Retrace in Whitegate since for me, it's a simple Warp and 3 minute run to get to the past. I guess this will cut down on BLMs making money

Spells

SE promised two new BLU spells with this update to go along with new mobs. Now since we know that the new mobs are in the northlands[s] zones, I'm guessing that these spells are going to be fairly high level. Of course, the utility of the spells need to be tested, as does the job trait effects that they might have

Sub Zero Roar - Enhances attack

* Looks good on paper... another self-buff, which is most likely spreadable to a party with Diffusion. Depending on how powerful and how long this lasts, it might make Diffusion more useful. Right now, I only use Diffusion for the event that we need Haste applied to a party quickly (usually Nyzul), or for Cocoon when I think it would help (rare situations)
Triumphant Smash - Additional Effect: Paralysis

* This is interesting... this is the first time BLU has gotten Paralyze as an enfeeble. So far, we have Slow, Gravity, Blind already, as well as Defense Down to match a RDM's enfeeble sets. This make a BLU capable of, if so desired, performing all of a RDM's enfeebling effects

Content Updates (Predicting disappointment)

So, this is where I'm predicting disappointment in all the content that SE put out with this update. This is what I'm predicting:

"Union" items will be really hard to get

* First, remember that SE loves randomness... so, I'm guessing that the drop rate on the items that people want will be on the order of 1-3%

* Second, if you read up on the way "Unions" are done from http://www.playonline.com/pcd/verup/ff11us/detail/4742/detail.html, it sounds like to be eligible for a "Union" reward, all you need to do is campaign after accepting Union status. My prediction is that everyone in the area who signs up for Union will lot for items when they drop whether they can benefit fully from it or not

* Of course, the "all jobs" aspect means that everyone will lot on the hot items... everyone can use some -Physical% and some +Waltz Potency. 30+ people lotting for virtually every item.

* I'm also predicting that since Unions mean that you have a chance of getting some other item that SE will make it so that you will no longer get exp from doing campaign under Union status.

* On the other hand, depending on how they spread the items out... this might end up promoting campaign in areas which people rarely bother to go, such as the beastmen strongholds, or the dungeons

* However, knowing SE, there is a high chance they'll be stupid and make it so that only certain items can show up in certain zones. It'll be Jugner Forest all over again with everyone camping specific campaign zones

"Kupo" add-on will have another 1-5% drop rate farming quest

* Looks like my poll is coming true... someone uncovered this text in the dats:

"Mog House unable to withstand the
elements, your moogle cohort entreats
you to find three materials required
for some much-needed renovations:
an Orcish armor plate, a Quadav
backscale, and a block of Yagudo"

* These are new Rare/Ex items... probably low drop rate, which means that everyone who pre-ordered the expansion will be out there farming for them again. Remember ACP? Same thing -.-

* Sooooooooo.... I'm not going to bother unlocking the expansion until at least August. No sense giving SE money now, so I'll wait for the next billing period. I'm hoping that the rest of you also follow this example so that SE can't claim that their new expansion is a "resounding success". There won't be any point anyway unless you want to compete with hundreds of other people hunting the same beastmen

* Also from previous experience: Waiting just 2-3 weeks after the initial rush, there will be a lot of mobs to choose from... so all you have to do is compete against the low drop rate -.-

MMM enhancement - Voucher 05 - Assist in the training of a young Goblin

* So... erm... who still does MMM? I think I was one of the few people who actually tried to get people to do this event, but with the stupidly low random drop rates, the nerfing of even the basic marble rewards discouraged me to the point that I shudder whenever I think of this...

* Given the NPC Fellow raising, how many people will actually bother to raise a goblin that can only show up in MMM?

Soooooooo.... I think the only things to look forward to in this update are: campaign bodies (at long last), some new BLU spells and possibly some actual MISSION updates to move the plot along. After nearly 2 years, SE finally decides to put some plot into this aging expansion. FFXI isn't the Harry Potter series... it shouldn't take 7 years to finish the story. Not to mention that Harry Potter movies were at least self-contained and had a conclusion -.-

About SE randomness

One thing really bugs me about SE and the way they run these online games is how they throw in randomness into FFXI. Things have a stupidly low drop rate. You can do an activity for hundreds of times and never get what you want, while the person next to you will go once and get it the first time.

The sad part is that the randomness in the drop rate is all just a part of SE's psychological warfare against their own customers. Similar to casinos, the randomness reinforces behavior. You think that the next time, the item you want will drop. You think that the next kill might just get what you want. You get a feeling of anxiety if you miss an event with the fear of missing out.

All this is exactly what a scientist called BF Skinner studied in the '50s. Constant rewards teach rats what to do in order to get food, but if you change the reward condition to be random, the rats become obsessed/addicted to always watching for possible food...

Exactly what SE wants to do to it's "consumers".

Anyway... another recent aspect of SE randomness is banning random players... while supposedly this is done in the name of cutting down on RMT, I wonder how much of it is done so that their "customers" will remain addicted and be afraid of quitting or suspending their accounts for fear of being banned...